TOC maps out your initiative through 5 stages:
- Identifying long-term goals and the assumptions behind them
- Backwards mapping and connect the preconditions or requirements
necessary to achieve that goal.
- Identifying the interventions that your initiative will perform
to create your desired change.
- Developing indicators to measure your outcomes to assess
the performance of your initiative.
- Writing a narrative to explain the logic of your initiative.
TOC process hinges upon defining all of the necessary and sufficient
conditions required to bring about a given long term outcome.
TOC uses backwards
mapping requiring planners to think in backwards steps from
the long-term goal to the intermediate and then early-term changes
that would be required to cause the desired change. This creates
a set of connected outcomes known as a ãpathway of changeä. A ãpathway
of changeä graphically represents the change process as it is
understood by the initiative planners and is the skeleton around
which the other elements of the theory are developed.
During the process of creating the pathway of change, participants
are required to articulate as many of their assumptions about
the change process as they can so that they can be examined and
even tested to determine if any key assumptions are hard to support
(or even false). There are typically three important types of
assumptions to consider: (a) assertions about the connections
between long term, intermediate and early outcomes on the map;
(b) substantiation for the claim that all of the important preconditions
for success have been identified; and (c) justifications supporting
the links between program activities and the outcomes they are
expected to produce. A fourth type of assumption which outlines
the contextual or environmental factors that will support or
hinder progress toward the realization of outcomes in the pathway
of change is often an additional important factor in illustrating
the complete theory of change.
TOC approach to planning is designed to encourage very clearly
defined outcomes at every step of the change process. Users are
required to specify a number of details about the nature of the
desired change÷including specifics about the target population,
the amount of change required to signal success, and the timeframe
over which such change is expected to occur. This attention to
detail often helps both funders and grantees reassess the feasibility
of reaching goals that may have initially been vaguely defined,
and in the end, promotes the development of reasonable long-term
outcome targets that are acceptable to all parties.
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