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[Background] [Outcomes] [Backwards
Mapping] Stage 1: Identifying Outcomes and assumptions In the first stage of theory development, TOC participants discuss, agree on, and get specific about, the long-term goal or goals. This can be done in a variety of ways, (see our facilitator’s guide), but the important thing is to set a good, clear outcome. The quality of the rest of the theory hinges on doing this right! Then, TOC participants start to design a simple map of the preconditions required to bring about the long-term goal. Beginning the mapping process helps stakeholders to visualize and prioritize their goals as well as specify what they expect to change and for which outcomes they want to be held accountable. Stage 1: Identifying Goals and Outcomes 
Commentary For this example, the long-term outcome is the long-term employment of domestic violence survivors at a livable wage. To achieve that goal, the program designers identify three preconditions: survivors attain coping skills, survivors have marketable skills in non-traditional jobs and survivors know and have appropriate workplace behavior. The program designers identified these preconditions from their experience and from research. To illustrate the logical importance of the three preconditions, we use solid, arrowed lines to show that the preconditions MUST come before the final long-term outcome. Assumptions and Justifications As previously discussed, the program designers realized that the program could only effectively work with women who had already begun to stabilize their lives. Any initiative is only as sound as its assumptions. Unfortunately, these assumptions are too often unvoiced or presumed frequently leading to confusion and misunderstanding in the operation and evaluation of the initiative. To address that problem, TOC documents assumptions to ensure agreement for planning and posterity. For the long-term outcome: “Long-term employment at livable wages for domestic violence survivors”, these assumptions must be met for the outcome to be achievable: A. There are jobs available in non-traditional skills for women. B. Jobs in non-traditional areas of work for women, such as electrical, plumbing, carpentry and building management are more likely to pay livable wages and are more likely to be unionized and provide job security. Some of these jobs also provide a ladder of upward mobility, from apprenticeship to master, giving entry-level employees a career future. These two assumptions make explicit why the participants believe this program can work: there are jobs in non-traditional work and that those jobs can offer better financial and professional For the outcome: “Survivors attain coping skills”, (which is also a precondition of the long-term outcome): the assumption is: Women who have been abused need more than just skills, they need to be emotionally ready for work as well. Again, this assumption clarifies why and how this program is different from traditional job-training programs, i.e., the special psychological supports needed for the initiative’s clients. For the outcome: “Survivors have marketable skills in non-traditional jobs”, it is assumed that: D. Women can learn non-traditional skills and compete
in the marketplace. Documenting assumptions and justifications is a continuous process. As outcomes are added and moved on the framework, it remains necessary to question and explain how and why they are necessary. Stage 2: Backwards mapping and drawing connections
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